Bangladesh · Telecom

Grameenphone Limited

Active

IdentifierGP

IndexFIBCOS Bangladesh Structural Alpha Index

Added5 November 2026

StatusActive

Public thesis summary

Investment Thesis

FIBCOS's view rests on six pillars covering the franchise, the return to growth, cash flow and dividends, valuation, regulation and balance-sheet capacity. Each carries an explicit risk.

PILLAR 1: Scale Leader With a Growing Digital Base

GP had approximately 86.8 million subscribers, up 3.4% since the end of 2025, and 53.3 million internet users (61.4% of its subscriber base), up 9.5% since the end of 2025, as of September 30, 2026. This represented approximately 46% of Bangladesh’s roughly 189 million mobile connections as of May 2026. Grameenphone launched 5G on September 1, 2025, and its MyGP app has more than 22 million users. In Q3 2026, combo (data-led) revenue grew approximately 21%, while data usage increased by around 12%.

PILLAR 2: Revenue Growth Has Returned, Barely

Q3 revenue of Tk 40.17 billion grew 0.2%, following declines of 2% and 3% in the preceding two quarters. EBITDA margin remained stable at 58.8%, while operating costs were flat. Nine-month revenue stood at Tk 117.7 billion, down 1.5%. We estimate FY26 revenue of Tk 157.0 billion, representing a 0.7% decline, followed by annual revenue growth of 4–5% from FY27 onward.

PILLAR 3: Cash Flow Supports a High, Though Falling, Dividend

Operating cash flow was Tk 61.6 billion in FY2025, while free cash flow amounted to Tk 47.5 billion. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow through June 2026 was Tk 38.4 billion. The company paid a total dividend of Tk 21.50 per share for 2025, comprising an interim dividend of Tk 11.00 and a final dividend of Tk 10.50. For 2026, it paid an interim dividend of Tk 10.50 per share. Trailing twelve-month dividend payments of Tk 21.00 per share imply a dividend yield of approximately 9.1% at a share price of Tk 230.

PILLAR 4: The Multiple Has Reset to a Low Level

Grameenphone’s market capitalisation declined from Tk 471.9 billion at the end of 2021 to Tk 310.6 billion currently, despite recovering to Tk 436 billion at the end of 2024. At 10.8x trailing earnings, 10.3x forward earnings and approximately 3.2x forward EBITDA, the shares trade below their recent historical valuation range. At the 52-week high, the stock traded at approximately 13.5x earnings. Our base-case valuation assumes a forward earnings multiple of 12.7x, broadly in line with the valuation level at the end of 2025.

PILLAR 5: A Heavy Tax and Spectrum Burden Is Understood

Press analysis estimates that government taxes and charges account for approximately Tk 56 of every Tk 100 spent on mobile services, with an additional 5.5% BTRC revenue-sharing obligation. Grameenphone acquired 10 MHz of 700 MHz spectrum in the first auction for approximately Tk 23.7 billion and faces spectrum licence renewals in 2026. The company has also welcomed the withdrawal of the SIM tax, although the effective date remains unconfirmed.

PILLAR 6: A Clean Balance Sheet Gives Optionality

Net debt stood at approximately Tk 0.1 billion at the end of Q3, with net debt-to-EBITDA of just 0.04x. Return on capital employed was 26.6%, while return on equity remained elevated relative to the company's book value of approximately Tk 41.5 per share at the end of 2025. Capital expenditure for the first nine months amounted to Tk 14.5 billion, equivalent to 12.3% of revenue.

The summary above is the public expression of a paid research conclusion. The full thesis, valuation framework, evidence base and falsification conditions are contained in FIBCOS Research.

Structural drivers

Beyond the quarterly cycle, five forces are expected to shape Grameenphone’s earnings over the next two to three years. For each, we distinguish observed evidence from FIBCOS inference and identify the principal offsetting risk.

Data Monetisation and 5G Evidence: Data usage increased 12%, internet users reached 53.3 million, and 5G has been operational since September 2025. Inference: We forecast revenue growth of 4.1% in FY27E, 4.6% in FY28E and 5.0% in FY29E. Offset: Price competition and weak consumer spending could constrain average revenue per user (ARPU).

Cost Discipline and Margins Evidence: EBITDA margin stood at 58.8%, with operating costs remaining flat at Tk 16.5 billion. Inference: We expect EBITDA margin to improve gradually from 58.6% to 59.8% by FY29E. Offset: Higher energy and network operating costs, together with increased spectrum amortisation, could limit margin expansion.

Capital Expenditure and Spectrum Evidence: Year-to-date capital expenditure was Tk 14.5 billion, equivalent to 12.3% of revenue. Grameenphone acquired 700 MHz spectrum for approximately Tk 23.7 billion, while spectrum licence renewals are due in 2026. Inference: We assume capital expenditure remains close to 12% of revenue. Offset: Capital expenditure exceeding expectations or substantial licence renewal costs could weaken free cash flow and potentially require a dividend reduction.

Taxation and Regulation Evidence: Government taxes and charges account for an estimated 56% of mobile spending. The company has welcomed the withdrawal of the SIM tax. Inference: Further tax relief would represent an upside catalyst, while additional taxation would create downside pressure. Offset: Fiscal deficits and government revenue requirements make further tax relief uncertain.

Dividend Policy Evidence: Dividends amounted to Tk 33.00 per share in 2024 and Tk 21.50 in 2025, followed by an interim dividend of Tk 10.50 in 2026. The payout ratio has been close to 100%. Inference: We estimate FY26E dividends of approximately Tk 21.00 per share, with annual growth of 5-8% as earnings recover. Offset: A high payout ratio leaves limited financial flexibility to absorb unexpected capital expenditure or other cash-flow pressures. Investment implications The first two drivers underpin our earnings growth assumptions, while the fifth provides dividend-yield support. Capital expenditure and spectrum commitments, together with taxation and regulatory developments, represent the principal risks to the investment case. Our base case requires approximately 8% annual EPS growth between FY26E and FY29E, alongside a forward earnings valuation multiple of 12.7x.

Key risks

Mature Market and Subscriber Growth: Subscriber growth is slowing, while voice minutes declined approximately 5%. Although Grameenphone has a large subscriber base, the market is mature, with ARPU pressure and competition from multiple operators.

Uncertain Revenue Recovery: One quarter of stabilising revenue does not establish a sustained recovery. A renewed decline would make FY27 growth assumptions more difficult to achieve. Q3 EBIT growth of just 0.7% also indicates limited operating leverage.

Dividend Sustainability: Dividend payouts are close to 100% of earnings, while capital expenditure requirements are increasing. Dividends declined from Tk 33.00 per share in 2024 to Tk 21.50 in 2025. A further reduction remains possible if earnings or free cash flow weaken.

Valuation Multiple Risk: The valuation multiple has contracted amid declining earnings and higher regulatory and tax costs. The shares may continue trading at a discounted multiple until sustainable profit growth becomes visible.

Spectrum and Regulatory Costs: Spectrum renewals and taxation could increase faster than revenue. Additional funding requirements for spectrum acquisition and 5G network expansion may constrain free cash flow and dividend payments.

Limited Financial Flexibility: Low net debt partly reflects the company's strong cash generation, but its high dividend payout leaves limited retained earnings. A substantial spectrum payment could therefore require additional borrowing or lower dividends.

Alpha history

Audit trail

Research Completed

4 November 2026

Research completed by the FIBCOS Research Desk.

Thesis Established

5 November 2026

Investment thesis documented against the country Structural Alpha Index.

Approval

5 November 2026

Investment thesis approved under the applicable FIBCOS research process. Approval is a precondition of Index inclusion.

Alpha Inclusion

5 November 2026

Added to the Structural Alpha Index following completion of the required research process.

Portfolio Eligibility

5 November 2026

Eligible for Alpha Portfolio selection while Index status remains Active. Eligibility is not selection.

Portfolio Allocation

Not recorded

Allocation is recorded only once the FIBCOS Bangladesh Alpha Portfolio reaches live inception.

Thesis Update

Not recorded

No thesis update has been published for this record.

Reactivated

Not recorded

Position Change

Not recorded

Position changes are recorded only for live portfolio positions.

Exit

Not recorded

The record remains in the Index. No exit has been recorded.

RegionSouth Asia

CountryBangladesh

IndustryTelecom

Index statusActive

Added5 November 2026

Under review since—

Removed—

Research items1 (paid)

PortfolioNot selected

Portfolio relationship

Eligible for Alpha Portfolio selection while Index status remains Active. Eligibility is not selection, and any position is reported only from live portfolio data.

Research basis

The work behind this decision

Publication	Type	Published	Access
Grameenphone Limited	Research Notes	4 November 2026	Free · Registration

Paid

Titles are public. The analysis is not.

Titles, types and dates are public. The analysis behind this record is available to FIBCOS Research subscribers; Research Notes are free to registered readers.

Research Access Contact desk

Position performance

Reported from live portfolio data only

Grameenphone Limited Contributors and detractors

Track Record PendingAttribution is reported from live portfolio data only.

ContributorsDetractors

Contribution —

Weight —

Since inclusion —

Vs benchmark —

Track Record Pending

Position-level performance is reported only from live portfolio data, and only for portfolios that have reached inception.